Hot money sings China's long-term real estate property bubble into a source of risk

Recently, domestic real estate companies' overseas bond issuance has plummeted, from about 10% last year to the nearest 5%. This shows that foreign investment is highly recognized by the Chinese real estate market.

In fact, while foreign investment banks such as JP Morgan Chase and Standard Chartered have lowered their forecasts for China's economic growth, more and more overseas funds are accelerating their participation in the Chinese real estate market through bonds and private equity funds. Standard Chartered Bank [microblogging] a senior analyst revealed to the media that they have undertaken a large number of Chinese housing companies overseas financing business, although from his personal point of view, the Chinese real estate market represented by Beijing, Guangzhou and other places have been overheated and House price bubble.

That is to say, the "hot money" of bloodthirsty is actually "singing the Chinese economy" while speeding up "doing more" Chinese real estate.

An unnamed securities analyst told reporters that creating chaos and speculating in the picture is actually the essence of the Chinese economy. "Disrupting audiovisual, creating panic, using 'invisible heart', with 'invisible hand', singing more and more, singing more and shorting, repeating operations, widening the volatility, and then acquiring in the turmoil of international and domestic financial markets. Maximize benefits." This has always been the speculative technique used by the "hot money" who are immersed in the international financial market.

Economist Li Caiyuan believes that "hot money" has come or gone. For such a large volume of the Chinese economy, it is not a big impact at present. "Even if these speculative hot money leaves for a short time, China's liquidity is enough to fill the vacancy." At the very least, "hot money" creates some opportunities for robbery. For example, they have been taking advantage of the fire in the Chinese property market bubble.

He said: "The key point is that as long as the Chinese economy adjusts itself and the industry really recovers, there is nothing to worry about. 'Hot money' is gone today and will come back tomorrow."

The real estate market becomes the main battlefield of economic transformation

The latest data shows that although the property market regulation and control policies have been tightened, the land market of key cities in the first half of this year has once again warmed up. For example, in Beijing, the revenue from operating land sales in the first six months was 62.975 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 334%, close to the total of 64.792 billion yuan in 2012. The land markets in Shanghai, Guangzhou and other major cities also culminated in the first half of the year.

Last year, Beijing's fiscal revenue was 331.4 billion yuan. According to the hot trend of the property market this year, the real estate industry may account for more than 20% of the fiscal revenue. It is not only the first in various industries, but also may surpass the record before 2010.

"Only by shrinking the shadow banking system, real estate regulation and control is ineffective." Lei Sihai, a financial analyst, believes that because of the alliance of huge interest groups, real estate is the last area affected by liquidity tightening. Such regulation and control, I am afraid that only when other industries die first, will it be the turn of real estate adjustment.

According to the national average urban price of 5,800 yuan per square meter in 2012, the assets of residential real estate have reached 132 trillion yuan. Therefore, a 10% increase in house prices nationwide is equivalent to an asset growth of 13 trillion yuan. The 13 trillion yuan wealth effect is equivalent to 25% of China's total GDP of 52 trillion yuan in 2012, which has caused banks, developers, certain local governments and squatters to “move money” in the real estate industry.

“The money of large and small depositors has been moved to the real estate market by banks and trust companies. Naturally, other industries are short of money.” He said that the “money tightness” of the Chinese economy is structural, and the funds have been sucked in by the crazy property market. Industrial companies and the stock markets that finance them are all in an "ischemic" state.

This is exactly the worry of the economist Li Caiyuan. The stock market shock caused by “money tightness” may result in “double killing industry”: on the one hand, the banking industry is tight, they often withdraw funds from the industry first, only the last If you can’t stand it, you will be separated from the high-profit real estate business. On the other hand, due to the unreasonable stock market structure, the real estate financial sector accounts for a large proportion. The original control target is the property market, but the stock market will be stumbled first and will hit investment. Confidence, long-term is not conducive to good companies in the market to finance. This means that both indirect financing and direct financing may “block the industry”.

Li Caiyuan emphasized that the "main battlefield" of the country's economic transformation is the real estate market, because the premise of industrial recovery is whether it can suppress the high housing price bubble. The current high housing prices have raised the cost of the entire society, regardless of personal cost of living or operating costs of enterprises, which has increased substantially invisibly.

"Where the general public struggles for a house, how can they start a business and innovate? The general manufacturing industry is watching the industry's malformation and high profits, what motivation is there to engage in production and scientific research?" He said that in the case of high social costs Next, the so-called "China's economic upgrade" to build China's advanced manufacturing and strategic emerging industries is just a statement, and it is difficult to achieve it. "One of the main reasons why the US economy is recovering is that the real estate bubble has collapsed, and social costs have come down, so that industry can get a breather."

Lei Sihai said that if the real estate market bubble continues, it will abduct the financing platform of banks and local governments, as well as China's monetary policy. Once the external environment changes, this will become a dangerous source for breaking through the Chinese economy.

Decision-making layer must pay attention to the property market problem

Lei Sihai believes that the urgent task of reversing the downward trend of China's economy is that the government has introduced a real estate tax reform policy based on stocks, which will try to "drive out" the mortuaries.

However, he seems to be somewhat pessimistic. "So far, even the city network of real estate information that I said earlier can't do it. It shows that the vested interests of real estate have great resistance." He predicted that the real estate bubble is now like the stock market rushing to 6000. The same point, if not contained, will eventually stage a tragedy of 1600 points.

Li Daokui, a member of the former central bank's currency committee and director of the China and World Economic Research Center of Tsinghua University, recently proposed a set of "prescription" for comprehensive management of financial panic.

He believes that the "money shortage" is forcing China's economy to accelerate deep-level reforms: First, it is necessary to liberalize the private economy investment restrictions and involve them in local infrastructure and public goods projects; second, it is necessary to carry out financial rectification and bank Some of the bad assets of the system "cut out like a tumor."

In addition, a key policy tool is to introduce real estate taxes as soon as possible. Li Daokui said that the property tax may not completely suppress housing prices in the short term, but it can give local governments an expectation of rising fiscal revenue. At the same time, the central government should give local governments more fiscal revenue, so that local governments have no concerns about future fiscal revenues and expenditures, which can activate and mobilize the local enthusiasm of China's economic transformation.

“Has half of the house price, the stock market has doubled.” Li Caiyuan used a mantra that was circulating in the market to predict the future of China’s economic transformation. That is to say, the premise of the improvement of the stock market is the recovery of the industry, and the premise of the recovery of the industry is the extent to which the government can solve the "key dilemma of the restructuring of the property market bubble", which is also to crack the local government's addiction to "land finance". The fundamental problem that cannot be lifted.

"The banking industry is making a 'money shortage', and then dragging down the stock market to create a psychological panic, so we must not divert our attention." He said that real estate is the "culprit" to contain China's economic transformation, and should not be in the decision-making perspective of the new central government. Slip off.

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